Having it the “QUATRO” way

Effects Based Thinking in Risk Calculation

Baseline Definitions

risk-03Risk. An exposure to the adverse consequences of future events.

Risk Identification. The process of uncovering risks to an activity or a project so that they may be evaluated and assigned for mitigation.

Risk Impact. A numeric measure denoting the effect that a risk may be thought to have on a project or the wider organization.

Risk Likelihood. A numeric measure denoting the probability that a risk may become an issue.

Risk Qualification. The process of determining the likelihood and impact of a risk so that the risk factor may be known.

Risk Factor. The result of multiplying together the likelihood and impact of a risk.

Risk Indicator. A tool within operational risk management, facilitating the monitoring and control of risk. In doing so, they may be used to support a range of operational risk management activities and processes.

Effects Based ThinkingEffects Based Thinking is less of a thing and more of a mindset. It seeks to understand the causal linkages between events, actions and results. It is most useful in understanding secondary and tertiary consequences to actions and events. Effects Based thinking is a special approach to strategic planning and decision making where the effects of specific actions are assessed, not in a narrowly defined and time-limited way, but through a perspective that is sensitive to broad-ranging and lasting impacts.  Effects Based thinking is the opposite of short-sightedness or myopia.


The “QUATRO” Process in a Nutshell

From Asymmetric Knowledge to Risk Analysis

In QUATRO, we process the asymmetric knowledge we have through lenses of Effects Based Mindset, where we continuously scan the horizon for respective developments in Political, Military, Economic and Social domains, define their significances, calculate the consequences, assign the likelihood and impact measures, only then reach the risk factors of respective risk indicators we keep track of.

By this way, we aim to assist you follow the steps in effective risk management with respect to your assets and interest:


We believe that strategic solutions do not generalize. They are built on insights, not rules or principles; thus competition is modeled as a discovery process where the rewards flow to entrepreneurs possessing valuable new insights or unique data rather than as a state of equilibrium.



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